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Certainty Effect Beispiel Essay

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Certainty Effect

Certainty Effect Description

When an outcome is certain and it becomes less probable, this has a greater impact than when the outcome was merely probable before the probability was reduced by the same amount. Thus 100% - 10% = 90% has more psychological impact than 50% - 10% = 40%.

There is also a pseudo-certainty effect. where the certainty is only perceived.

Overall, this works because of our preference for absolutes and our inability to really understand the meaning of the difference between different probabilities. To most people, 70%, 80% and 90% all mean the same: not certain, but fairly likely. Thus we would rather eliminate risk rather than reduce it.

Research

Kahneman and Tversky (1979) asked students to evaluate insurance costing only 50% of normal, but which would only pay out in 50% of cases (though their premium would be refunded if they did not get the payout). 80% of students chose to refuse the insurance.

Example

Most people would pay more to remove the only bullet in the gun in a game of Russian Roulette than they would to remove one bullet when there were four in the gun.

So what? Using it

Instead of offering four for the price of three, offer one free with three purchased. The zero price has greater certainty.

Defending

Beware of making decisions based on absolutes. Distinguish the real difference between 80% and 90%.

See also

Other articles

Certainty effect beispiel essay

Certainty

The mind, which has grasped a right theory of knowledge. and has experienced it, that mind is on the road to certainty–the only kind of certainty that is open to the consciousness soul because it has begun to cross the threshold between the objective and sujbective worlds.

Our perceptions and memory are only reliable to the point of how we judge. We see from our own perception and memory. What the mind perceives is realty. Your life can be greatly affected by the way you think. One thing about perception it doesn’t have to be off by much to give you a false picture. We may be looking at the picture through cockeyed glasses. It is very difficult to get an accurate rendering of the true story.

We justify and defend our perceptions and memories. We permit our self to judge by what is certain in our perceptions and memories. My experience has been we can see the glass half empy or half full. I chose to see the glass half full.

Certainty, is an established fact? To be certain is having no doubt and being positive. One thing we can be truly certain about is one day we will leave this life and earth as we know it today and that is certain.

Sample cause and effect essay on red light runners

Home > Samples > Cause and effect essay on red light runners

Sample cause and effect  essay on red light runners

Did you know that most car related deaths occur within twenty miles of your house and at speeds slower than 40 miles per hour? Most of these deaths occur at intersection, where one or more drivers decide to disobey a traffic rule. People violate traffic rules many times everyday. Many accidents happen because drivers and other people on the road do not obey the law. The most common traffic violation is perhaps running the red light. This is when the light at the signal is red and the driver decides to ignore the light and to cross the intersection. People run red lights because they are sometimes too impatient to wait for the signal to turn green. Other drivers are simply annoyed at red lights and they just do not want to wait. Running a red light can have disastrous effects and this essay shall look at how running a red light can have certain adverse effects.

One of the most disastrous effects that running a red light could have is death. A car that runs a red light is liable to come in the path of the traffic that has the green light. Many drivers tend not to look right and left while crossing the intersection when they have the green light. This means, that a person running a red light is driving into a potential car that is coming unrestrained at high speed from either side. A collision between the two cars could result in serious injuries and even death. This is perhaps the most dangerous effects of running a red light. Even though the speeds at which the cars collide can be very slow, the main thing that makes this kind of collision very dangerous is the sheer momentum if the cars. The car that has he green light would be coming in fast and unrestrained and with full momentum. A collision with anything would cause great damage to both the car as well as to whatever it hits. If the car hits another car at a certain angle or with a certain force, the driver(s) can be killed, or very seriously injured.

Another effect of running the red light is causing damage to your car. Just as in the above case, cars colliding in the middle of the road are very much liable to be damaged. This means an expense to the drivers and the drivers insurance. This is another effect of running a red light, which is grave, but not as grave enough as getting injured or dying. The chances of injury here are also very high, and one cannot really separate the incident of an injury, whether mild or serious, from an incidence of car collision. Cars colliding at any speed are likely to cause damage to the car, which can also range from being mild to extremely disastrous. This can mean getting a small dent, or completely totaling your engine. In either case, the owner(s) would have to pay to get the car fixed and this is an expense to the drivers, which could have been avoided if the red light had not been run.

A third effect of running a red light is that the person running the red light would get a ticket from the police. If a person runs a red light, two things can happen: either the intersection would be wired up with cameras that would take the picture of the offender and send an automatic ticket to the perpetuator's house, or a police patrol might see the act and pull over the car to give it a ticket. In any case, the driver would be penalized and fined for running a red light. The police even have the right to arrest the violator if they think that running the red light could have been dangerous for other drivers or pedestrians on the street.

So, these were three of the effects of running a red light, as it can result in someone's death or injury, damaging the car, and getting a ticket from the police. Everyone should avoid running a red light, even if the roads are empty, as you never know where a car might come from. This is extremely important if we are to save lives on the streets. Many people have already suffered after running red lights and we should all learn from their mistakes and be safe drivers, not just for ourselves but for everybody else out on the streets as well.

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Cause and Effect Essay

Cause and Effect Essay

March 26th, 2009

Writing an article essay may actually intend to pursue a certain goal. It will all depend on the writer’s intention as to what he wants to discuss about. In this manner, there is also what we call a cause and effect essay. The task is so simple; simply provide some causality aspects of scenarios and then provide details for what will become end results of effects.

Writing a cause and effect essay does not seem challenging at all but it is actually a really demanding task. Since you need to provide details how an event influenced another event, then researching is more important than ever. So what are the benefits in writing a cause and effect essay. The primary goal of writing such an essay is to present the conditions that will make an event possible. This means that you are like training your logical thinking as to how much you can present proofs, arguments and explain things to why a certain event happened from an identified cause. So it is really an important matter to properly manage how you logically explain things and reason out your explanations.

There are only a few parts necessary in writing a cause and effect essay. Actually, you can follow the general rules in composing an article. Simply include the thesis statement, introduction, body and then the conclusion. You can also partition the body paragraphs into causes and effects parameters for a clearer discussion.

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Certainty Essay Research Paper The mind which

Certainty Essay Research Paper The mind which

Certainty Essay, Research Paper

The mind, which has grasped a right theory of knowledge, and has experienced it, that mind is on the road to certainty–the only kind of certainty that is open to the consciousness soul because it has begun to cross the threshold between the objective and sujbective worlds.

Our perceptions and memory are only reliable to the point of how we judge. We see from our own perception and memory. What the mind perceives is realty. Your life can be greatly affected by the way you think. One thing about perception it doesn’t have to be off by much to give you a false picture. We may be looking at the picture through cockeyed glasses. It is very difficult to get an accurate rendering of the true story.

We justify and defend our perceptions and memories. We permit our self to judge by what is certain in our perceptions and memories. My experience has been we can see the glass half empy or half full. I chose to see the glass half full.

Certainty, is an established fact? To be certain is having no doubt and being positive. One thing we can be truly certain about is one day we will leave this life and earth as we know it today and that is certain.

Greenhouse Effect Essay Research Paper Greenhouse EffectThis

Greenhouse Effect Essay Research Paper Greenhouse EffectThis

Greenhouse Effect Essay, Research Paper

This effect is the result of certain atmospheric gases letting sunlight through to the earth’s surface, while not letting energy radiated outward from the earth’s surface. This results in a net buildup of solar energy in the Earth’s atmosphere, because the flow in is greater than the flow outwards.

The chemicals that are most significantly involved in this effect are chloroflurocarbons (CFCs), hydrogenated chloroflurocarbons (HCFCs), nitrous oxide (N2O), and tropospheric ozone (O3). Because the concentrations of CFCs and other gases are increasing, there is a possibility that this effect will be magnified, and the temperature of the earth will subsequently rise. This may cause ecological damage, and could possibly harm human health and the environment.(Eblen and Eblen, 1994, p. 306)

Analysis and Projections

Projections are a key information input to Australia’s greenhouse policy agenda. Projections methodology underpins assessment of the effectiveness of existing measures, and the developmen

t of least cost options for further abatement.

The Analysis and Projections Team, which is part of the Greenhouse Policy Group of the Australian Greenhouse Office, integrates economic projections and other technical analyses to provide strategic assessment of policy approaches. The Team s major responsibilities are to develop projections of Australia s future greenhouse gas emissions and to evaluate Australia’s progress towards greenhouse targets.

The key actions of the Analysis and Projections Team are to:

+ Provide robust projections of future levels of greenhouse gas emissions to support sound decisions on greenhouse mitigation actions

+ Provide economic analysis and advice to support policy formulation, program development and other AGO outputs

+ Assess sensitivities and uncertainties systematically

+ Develop scenarios to assess Australia s greenhouse gas abatement performance under different policy options and economic conditions

+ Engage with stakeholders to improve projections.

Cause - Effect Essay - Megan s Writing Portfolio

Cause and Effect Essay

According to the National Cancer Institute, there are an estimated two hundred and fifteen cancers in the world. Liz Szabo, a reporter from USA Today, recorded a total of 18.2 million patients who have been diagnosed with cancer. Since cancerous patient rates continue to increase, new studies have been tested in order to discover treatment for cancer. Two treatments that are responsible for being most effective in cancer research are chemotherapy and stem cells. The two more recent treatments have provided researchers with a greater understanding of cancer (including the sources) and effective ways to prevent illness. Even though both treatments are effective, they are very complex and controversial. Cancer is life altering and people are diagnosed for some type of the disease every day. Since the number of cancerous patients is increasing, the number of people who get treatment increase.

“Today, about one in every twenty-six Americans have had cancer,” reported Szabo. Cancer has become more prevalent in due to unhealthy lifestyles people have. “Cancer is a class of diseases in which a group of cells display uncontrollable growth, invasion of adjacent tissues, and sometimes metastasis (spread to other locations in the body)” (Carson-DeWitt). The graph to the left shows the projected increase for patients ever diagnosed with cancer from the year 2005 to 2020. Cancer has increased over the years due to causes such as genetics, smoking, radiation, viruses, alcohol, poor diet, and lack of physical activity. Some researchers are worried that there won’t be enough doctors for the number of incoming cancer patients. Cancer has taken the lives of many patients starting at 114,186 deaths in 1930 to 556,902 in 2003. Due to prevention, early detection, and improved treatment, survivor rates have increased. Cancer has affected men and women differently because of different bodily reactions. Because of this, women tend to have a higher death rate then men.

According to MedicineNet.com, “Breast cancer is the leading cancer for women in the U.S. Lung cancer is the second most common form of cancer. Prostate cancer is the leading cancer for men in the U.S. It is followed by lung cancer” (Hecht). The most common cancer between men and women is lung cancer: “The American Cancer Society’s most recent lung cancer statistics in the United States for 2009 include an estimated 166,900 men and 103,350 women will be diagnosed with lung cancer” (Cancer 101 ). This is a total of 220,250 people with lung cancer. The previously mentioned treatments (chemotherapy and stem cells) have helped to treat lung cancer in numerous ways.

In the early stages of lung cancer, surgery is usually the first option to prevent the disease from developing in the lungs. If the cancer is too difficult to remove then chemotherapy is often used. Chemotherapy is the use of strong chemicals or drugs to kill cancer cells, stop their reproduction, or slow their growth. The first use of chemotherapy was in 1947. Medicines were first used to treat parasitic diseases. Later, they were used for more serious illnesses such as malaria, amebiasis, trypanosomiasis, and schistosomiasis [1]. Andres Goth, an M.D. at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical School explained: “through genetic engineering, scientists have been able to manufacture large quantities of anticancer drugs from naturally occurring substances, including inferno, a protein produced by animal cells.” He included some diseases that interferon were used for such as “chronic myelogenous leukemia, genital warts, chronic hepatitis, malignant melanoma, and multiple sclerosis.”

Chemotherapy drugs are given intravenously or in conjunction with radiation therapy or surgery. Chemotherapy may cause patients to vomit, become nauseated, lose hair, and get mouth sores. Irwin H. Krakoff, an M.D. at the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer center discusses the effects on cells:

Unfortunately, though many substances have been found to interfere with the growth of cells, their use in chemotherapy has been limited by the fact that such substances attack both normal and malignant tissue. But certain chemicals, when used cautiously, are able to impair the growth of neoplastic cells without irreparable damage to normal cells.

According to an article that weighed the risks and benefits of chemotherapy, the benefits of chemotherapy are; “it can reduce the number of cancer cells that spread to other parts of the body, reducing the likelihood that cancer will return and potentially prolonging life. It can also be used before surgery to shrink larger tumors, making less invasive surgery possible” (Bonadonna). An anonymous patient tells about the effect chemotherapy has had on their his with lung cancer:

The chemo has messed with my nervous system and parts of my body feel numb and other parts burn for no reason. I have 2 or 3 more scheduled chemo treatments, but I've been told that my lung cancer is treatable, but not curable and I honestly don't know if I can spend the rest of my life feeling so miserable. Chemotherapy is like having the flu for 90 percent of your waking hours. It is like the worst flu imaginable. My brother sent me an article stating, "The word chemotherapy is linked to healing although its origins derive from the deadly mustard gas used in World War I. Today it is used as a powerful tool as part of cancer treatment". It's no wonder we get so sick. It's a poison. But the choice is ours. Living a life of being sick 75 to 90 percent of the time, or not living at all. I've spent a lot of time pondering about which alternative I want to take (“Patient”).

About seventy-five percent of cancer patients use chemotherapy despite the difficult side effects. In an article discussing the costs of chemotherapy, Kate Savage, a chemotherapy expert, states, “the cost of chemotherapy depends on the types of drugs and duration of treatment; it also depends on how often the treatment is given and where you are taking it.” By the end of treatment, chemotherapy could cost 30,000 dollars or more. With the costs of treatment being so high, patients often struggle financially to pay off medical bills. Although chemotherapy has negative side effects and is expensive, it continues to be a common way to treat patients. A newer treatment still getting tested is the use of stem cells on cancerous patients.

Stem cells have the capability of developing into many different cell types in the body during growth. They can renew themselves through cell division and become a part of organs or tissues with specific functions. John Dick first discovered stem cells in certain types of leukemia in 1997. According to an article written by Nicholas Wade in the New York Times. “at the heart of every tumor, some researchers believe, like a handful of aberrant stem cells that maintain the malignant tissue.” The article explains further, “biologists are not yet sure how cancer stem cells are generated.”

Stem cells are used in bone marrow transplantation and blood stem cell transplantation in order to repair stem cells that were destroyed by chemotherapy. Recent research suggests that stem cells can refurbish dead tissue. Stem cells are primarily found in embryonic cells. Scientists are experimenting the full extent of stem cells and so far, have been successful with their results. Stem cells are indeed beneficial and with more discoveries made in the future they could be the new treatment towards cancer.

Although stem cells have been proven to be helpful, they also have caused a worldwide controversy. Thomas F. Lee from St. Anselm College explained the debate regarding the ethics of destroying human embryos for research. The Department of Health and Human Services banned funding for research projects in fear that they would be killing human embryos. In 2006, Congress passed legislation for funding on new cells. Majority of people are beginning to think that the benefits of using stem cells outweigh the negatives in the research.

Stem cells are being studied in order to figure out if scientists can transport them to a damaged area and direct them to grow to new tissue. Since this is a controversial issue, research is moving slowly. People want to know more about the use of stem cells and what they one day could be capable of, but those questions cannot be answered before many experiments have been preformed on stem cells. Hospital staff has become more aware of what stem cells are capable of and the release of new technology is constantly competed for since they want to treat their patients to the fullest extent of possibly getting rid of the cancer.

Chemotherapy and stem cells have caused new technological advancements for cancer patients. They are beneficial enough to treat cancer to the point of almost getting rid of it all together. Chemotherapy has caused cancer patients to have awful side effects and have to pay off large medical bills, but it has cured many patients and lowered death rates. Stem cells have provided new information on the division of cells and their potential to reconstruct other cells back into their healthy forms. Both treatments have proven to be beneficial and with more research the ultimate goal of cancer could be met: the cure and prevention for any type of cancer.

[1] See Goth for additional illnesses treated by chemotherapy.

Szabo, Liz. "Cancer Burden Expected to Soar, Overwhelm Doctors." USA TODAY. N.p. Mar. 2007. Web. 18 Feb. 2010. <http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2007-03-13-cancer- boom_N.htm>.

Liz Szabo is a reporter for USA Today. She wrote an article regarding the number of cancer patients, the rates of diagnosed, treated, and untreated patients. She was thorough and quoted other people in her article to confirm her statistics. Liz also went into detail on what the causes of cancer are and how to prevent cancer. She could have gone into more detail in her article where she discussed the treatments for cancer.

Carson-DeWitt, Rosalyn. "Cancer." ReferenceAnswers. Google, 2010. Web. 18 Feb. 2010. <http://www.answers.com/topic/cancer>.

In this article, Rosalyn explained the description of cancer and different types. There were many definitions attached to this article from encyclopedias and dictionaries. She was effective in describing cancer, however; she could have provided more information on the cause of cancer. Rosalyn and many other researchers contributed to this article in order to fully describe what cancer is and how it affects people.

Hecht, Barbara K. and Frederick Hecht. "Leading Cancers in Women, Men, & Children." MedicineNet.com. N.p. n.d. Web. 18 Feb. 2010. <http://www.medicinenet.com/script /main/art.asp?articlekey=25264>.

Barbara and Frederick Hecht are medical editors for the cite MedicineNet.com. They describe the leading cancer for men and women and provide links to information about specific cancers. There wasn’t information presented discussing treatments for the cancers. This information provides statistics regarding cancer in men and women.

Lung Cancer 101: About Lung Cancer. CancerCare, 2009. Web. 18 Feb. 2010. <Lung Cancer 101: About Lung Cancer>.

This website was very helpful since it provided basic medical information on cancer. It explained prevention, types, symptoms, risk, diagnosis, treatment, and other details concerning cancer. The website also provided frequently asked questions which could be helpful to a person with cancer that wants to know more.

Goth, Andres. "Chemotherapy." Encyclopedia Americana. 2010. Grolier Online. 22 Feb. 2010 <http://ea.grolier.com/article?id=0089420-00>.

This article was found from using one of the databases. It primarily discusses what chemotherapy is and the history and research of it. The author of the article, Andres Goth, is an M.D. at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical School. He provided examples of chemotherapy and what treatment for cancer consisted of in the past. He did not include the effect chemotherapy has on patients today.

Krakoff, Irwin H. "Cancer (disease)." Encyclopedia Americana. 2010. Grolier Online. 22 Feb. 2010 <http://ea.grolier.com/article?id=0073770-00>.

Irwin Krakoff is an M.D. at the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center. In his article he explained what cancer is and other general topics such as incidences, causes, diagnosis, and the way it develops. He didn’t provide statistics of the number of cancer patients or the number of cancers in the world. His information helped me to understand some of the negative effects of chemotherapy.

Bonadonna, Gianni, Gabriel N. Hortobagyi, and A. Massimo Gianni, eds. Textbook of Breast Cancer: A Clinical Guide to Therapy. 2nd ed. London: Martin Dunitz, 2001.

In this article I learned about the risks and the benefits of chemotherapy. It described how chemotherapy was used and what a patient should do before taking the drugs for cancer. The benefits are effective enough to say that chemotherapy is worth undergoing. The article did not mention what cancers chemotherapy works best for.

"Patient Discussions: Chemotherapy-Coping with Side Effects." MedicineNet.com. N.p. n.d. Web. 22 Feb. 2010. <http://www.medicinenet.com/chemotherapy/discussion-272.htm>.

In this article the name of the patient is unknown, but a description of what they felt of the chemotherapy was described in detail. The website provided other opinions from different patients. I chose this persons because it specifically talked about chemotherapy and this person had lung cancer which is the most common cancer among men and women.

Savage, Kate "Cost of Chemotherapy." Cost of Chemotherapy. 26 Aug. 2008 EzineArticles.com. 22 Feb. 2010 <http://ezinearticles.com/?Cost-­of-­Chemotherapy&id=1442443 >.

Kate Savage wrote this article on a website that talks all about cancer and chemotherapy. I learned the expenses of chemotherapy and how challenging it can be to pay for. Even though chemotherapy is often covered by insurance, there are still medical bills that must be paid. The article could’ve been more specific with prices since they consisted primarily of ranges of numbers.

Nicholas, Wade. "Stem Cells May Be Key to Cancer." Health. The New York Times, 21 Feb. 2006. Web. 22 Feb. 2010. <http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/21/health /21canc.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1>.

Nicholas Wade published an article discussing what stem cell researchers have discovered so far with their research. They discuss what is still unknown and what they know stem cells are capable of. Future plans are also explained since stem cell research is controversial and slow moving. I thought the article could’ve said more about what exactly the process of the stem cell is in the cancerous area of the body.

Lee, Thomas F. "Stem Cells." Encyclopedia Americana. 2010. Grolier Online. 22 Feb. 2010 <http://ea.grolier.com/article?id=0431442-00>.

West, Larry. "U.S. Cancer Deaths Decline for First Time Since 1930." About.com. N.p. 2006. Web. 23 Feb. 2010. <http://environment.about.com/od/healthenvironment/a/uscancerdeaths.htm>.

"Chemotherapy Statistics." Cancerfighter's Weblog. N.p. n.d. Web. 23 Feb. 2010. <http://cancerfighter.wordpress.com/2008/10/01/chemotherapy-statistics/>.

Wikipedia contributors. "Cancer." Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, 21 Feb. 2010. Web. 23 Feb. 2010.

Cause and effect essays, write Cause and effect essays

Cause and effect essays

Writing a Cause and Effect Essay is a more challenging endeavor than writing descriptive or narrative essays since this type of essay requires an advanced writing ability. The writer must clearly present the factual material and that differentiates cause and effect essay from narrative or descriptive essays. It is necessary for the writer to have profound research skills as cause and effect essays require the use of external sources rather than personal opinion. The essay should be written using the third person and never use the personal opinon in the body of the text. One should avoid using narrative writing style as it will point out writer's weaknesses and will not meticulously present their points of view. The writer should strive to convince the reader to accept the given cause-and-effect framework through accepting external references, evidence, facts and sources.

Cause and effect essays start with the presentation of a certain phenomenon, topic or trend. The writer should use professional writing style succinctly write on the chosen topic focusing on the topic's background. Depending on the topic of a Cause and Effect Essay it might be required for the writer to prove the existence of a certain topic before even mentioning it in the cause and effect essay.

The body of a cause and effect essay is all about building cause-and-effect relationships and providing supportive arguments and evidence. To make a professionally-looking essay, the writer should anticipate the reader's questions and possible objections to the writer's ideas. They should also provide exhaustively persuasive arguments to ascertain that the reader of a cause and effect essay accepts these arguments.

Cause and effect essays demand the use of professional writing style and consistency thorough consistency. It is necessary to present the material in a way that would be accepted by the targe audience. Absolutist and imposing expressions should be avoided. Since cause and effect essays require the use of quotations and references to uphold the writer's stance, the writer should avoid "common knowledge" materials and personal opinions. Cause and Effect Essay must be smoothly-flowing and properly referenced. It should be up-to-the-point, succinct and clear. Uncertainty and vagueness should be minimized. The writing style should remain professional, straight-forward and competent while the writer might add some humor to make the essay interesting to read.

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